Friday, July 11, 2014

reset read me

I've decided I can't explain how to pick stocks, not on a blog, but I think I can pick them, so I'm mostly gonna just pick some. I'll comment, and you may read that one stock or another is "a good stock". Does that mean you should put all your money in it? Please don't be silly.

The person I'm concerned about is the small investor. Small investors need to place small bets, and you can only make money on small bets if you get a big return on winning bets. As a small investor, you need to see the possibility of big returns, in the stock market.

In the stock market, there are stocks you can buy, and stocks you can't buy. A stock may exist, but if no one is selling it, you can't buy it. I mean, maybe you could, if you offered a lot, but offering a lot is never a good idea. You should offer a little. Billionaires never pay retail.

A stock you can buy, you can buy in a minute. There are lots and lots and lots of sellers, and buyers. It's an active market.

Probably most active markets for stocks exist because there are real and substantial companies behind the stocks. Why would there be a market for a company's stock? Why does it matter, to investors, that a company is real and substantial? Aren't stocks just an abstraction? Apparently not. The reasons have to do with the nature of business, and they're interesting. If you are interested in that, let me know.

I think I have learned how to find active stocks. If that's true I expect to offer you only active stocks for consideration. If I'm wrong, and I offer you inactive stocks by mistake, they probably won't do you any good. Listen, if you're going to go into uncharted territory, which the stock market paradoxically is (and which writing is), you are going to blunder around. I can't predict completely what I'm going to do. You have to assess things I do, each one of them, to see whether I'm making sense.

Just because a stock is active doesn't mean it's a good buy. Confusing activity, and even strength, with value, is how so many people loose in the stock market. Activity can be a sign of value, but it isn't always. Not by any means. In these charts, I'm looking for value. Try to see if you can see the value in them.

The previous two posts are stocks worth at least looking at. Just because I think a stock is worth looking at doesn't mean you should buy it. In fact, it's your decision whether to buy or not buy, sell or not sell, so I'm not saying you should buy a stock, ever ... except in a very general philosophical sense, and, in that sense, as a sensible person, you should buy stocks - and do it intelligently. What I will tell you is whether I'm including a stock mostly for fun, or whether I think it's - maybe ... I just can't say I'm sure - a truly good buy. I'll also always talk about when to sell. I don't care what anyone says, selling is probably important.

Before the previous two posts ("yod" and "reset"), there's a bunch of muddled bs that you may have already read. Just ignore it, or make what you can of it. Before that there are charts I posted a long time ago. I wonder what they're like. I think I'll have a look.

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